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Middelfart vs Esbjerg — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Middelfart
Middelfart
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Esbjerg
Esbjerg
5/24/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 7Middelfart Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Middelfart32%
×Draw24%
Esbjerg44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middelfart
1.34
Esbjerg
1.61

Esbjerg creates 20% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 31 away

creates per match

Middelfart
1.50
Esbjerg
2.03

allows per match

Middelfart
1.20
Esbjerg
1.19

finishing

Middelfart+0.00on par
Esbjerg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middelfart ↓

Esbjerg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Middelfart or draw
56%
Middelfart or Esbjerg
76%
Draw or Esbjerg
68%

Winning margin

Middelfart wins by 2+
14%
Esbjerg wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Middelfart 1+ goals
74%
Middelfart 2+ goals
39%
Middelfart 3+ goals
15%
Esbjerg 1+ goals
80%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
48%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Middelfart (draw refunded)
42%
Esbjerg (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middelfart at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 56 matches

Esbjerg away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middelfart attack 1.50 + Esbjerg defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Esbjerg attack 2.03 + Middelfart defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Middelfart scores more
32%
level
24%
Esbjerg scores more
44%

Esbjerg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Middelfart vs Esbjerg

Esbjerg beat Middelfart 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 24, 2024.

The match was played at Middelfart Stadion in Middelfart.