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Esbjerg vs Middelfart — 1. Division 2018

Esbjerg
Esbjerg
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Middelfart
Middelfart
11/10/20251. Division1. Division · Round 16Blue Water Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Esbjerg54%
×Draw22%
Middelfart24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esbjerg
1.90
Middelfart
1.18

Esbjerg creates 61% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 16 away

creates per match

Esbjerg
1.41
Middelfart
1.00

allows per match

Esbjerg
1.36
Middelfart
2.38

finishing

Esbjerg+0.00on par
Middelfart+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esbjerg ↓

Middelfart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Esbjerg or draw
76%
Esbjerg or Middelfart
78%
Draw or Middelfart
46%

Winning margin

Esbjerg wins by 2+
31%
Middelfart wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Esbjerg 1+ goals
85%
Esbjerg 2+ goals
56%
Esbjerg 3+ goals
29%
Middelfart 1+ goals
69%
Middelfart 2+ goals
33%
Middelfart 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Esbjerg (draw refunded)
70%
Middelfart (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esbjerg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.36 · 64 matches

Middelfart away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esbjerg attack 1.41 + Middelfart defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.90

Middelfart attack 1.00 + Esbjerg defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Esbjerg scores more
54%
level
22%
Middelfart scores more
24%

Esbjerg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Esbjerg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esbjerg vs Middelfart

Esbjerg beat Middelfart 4-2 in 1. Division on November 10, 2025.

The match was played at Blue Water Arena in Esbjerg.