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Portstewart vs Armagh City — Premier Intermediate League 2018

Portstewart
Portstewart
FT
2 – 1
Armagh City
Armagh City
12/8/2018Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 6Seahaven (Portstewart)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Portstewart44%
×Draw25%
Armagh City31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portstewart
1.58
Armagh City
1.29

Portstewart creates 22% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Portstewart
2.00
Armagh City
1.50

allows per match

Portstewart
1.07
Armagh City
1.17

finishing

Portstewart+0.00on par
Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portstewart ↓

Armagh City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Portstewart or draw
69%
Portstewart or Armagh City
75%
Draw or Armagh City
56%

Winning margin

Portstewart wins by 2+
22%
Armagh City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Portstewart 1+ goals
79%
Portstewart 2+ goals
47%
Portstewart 3+ goals
21%
Armagh City 1+ goals
72%
Armagh City 2+ goals
37%
Armagh City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Portstewart (draw refunded)
59%
Armagh City (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portstewart at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

Armagh City away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portstewart attack 2.00 + Armagh City defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Armagh City attack 1.50 + Portstewart defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portstewart scores more
44%
level
25%
Armagh City scores more
31%

Portstewart at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portstewart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portstewart vs Armagh City

Portstewart beat Armagh City 2-1 in Premier Intermediate League on December 8, 2018.

The match was played at Seahaven (Portstewart).