Metropolitanos FC vs Caracas FC — Primera División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 131+ matches
Metropolitanos FC39%
Caracas FC33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Metropolitanos FC creates 10% more chances
Season form · 131 home / 136 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Metropolitanos FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.10 · 131 matches
Caracas FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.04 · 136 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Metropolitanos FC attack 1.50 + Caracas FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27
Caracas FC attack 1.19 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Metropolitanos FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Carabobo FC
Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo Tachira FC
Puerto CabelloMetropolitanos FC
UCVCaracas FC
Zamora FC
Estudiantes de Merida FC
Portuguesa FC
Monagas SC
Rayo Zuliano
Academia Anzoátegui
Yaracuyanos FC
Trujillanos FCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Metropolitanos FC host Caracas FC on Sunday, 26 October 2025 at 23:30. The match is part of the Primera División 2018/2019 season.
Primera División: Metropolitanos FC 2–3 Caracas FC
Caracas FC beat Metropolitanos FC 3-2 in Primera División on October 26, 2025.
Goals: A. Figueroa (3'), M. Covea (6'), J. De Santis (40'), J. Ramirez (66'), J. Gimenez (80').
The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.