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Caracas FC vs Metropolitanos FC — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Caracas FC
Caracas FC
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
3/4/2026CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Qualification Round 1Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Caracas FC53%
×Draw28%
Metropolitanos FC19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caracas FC
1.38
Metropolitanos FC
0.70

Caracas FC creates 97% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Caracas FC
1.00
Metropolitanos FC
0.50

allows per match

Caracas FC
0.90
Metropolitanos FC
1.75

finishing

Caracas FC+0.00on par
Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caracas FC ↓

Metropolitanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Caracas FC or draw
81%
Caracas FC or Metropolitanos FC
72%
Draw or Metropolitanos FC
47%

Winning margin

Caracas FC wins by 2+
26%
Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Caracas FC 1+ goals
75%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
40%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
16%
Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
50%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
16%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Caracas FC (draw refunded)
74%
Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caracas FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

Metropolitanos FC away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caracas FC attack 1.00 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Metropolitanos FC attack 0.50 + Caracas FC defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Caracas FC scores more
53%
level
28%
Metropolitanos FC scores more
19%

Caracas FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Caracas FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
F. BenitezCaracas FCCaracas FC · G
8.3

Match Events

35'
Yolfran Caricote
48'
Angel Figueroa
56'
C. Vegas← Robert Hernandez
61'
Isaac Ramirez
65'
J. Navarro← R. Figueroa
70'
L. A. Maestre Nino← C. Larotonda
70'
J. Uribe← M. Covea
72'
Luis Mago
78'
M. Marquez← A. Figueroa
78'
L. Reinoso← A. Fernandez
81'
R. Sangiovani← D. Zalzman
90+3'
Francisco La Mantía
90+2'
R. Garces← E. Valderrey

Possession

61%Caracas

Shots

7Caracas

Pass accuracy

52%Caracas

Statistics

CaracasMetropolitanos
Overview
61%Possession39%
7Total Shots6
0.49Expected Goals (xG)0.58
4Corners2
13Fouls9
Shots
7Total Shots6
2On Target1
4Off Target2
1Blocked3
4Inside Box4
3Outside Box2
Passing
61%Possession39%
472Total Passes308
386Accurate Passes236
82%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
0.36Goals Prevented0.36
Discipline
13Fouls9
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides4

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Caracas FC 0–0 Metropolitanos FC

Caracas FC and Metropolitanos FC drew 0-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on March 4, 2026.

Caracas FC controlled possession (61%) and registered 7 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.