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Metropolitanos FC vs Caracas FC — Copa Venezuela 2024

Metropolitanos FC
Metropolitanos FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Caracas FC
Caracas FC
R. Blanco 90'
J. Ramirez 41'
J. Murillo 57'
M. Vegas 19'
8/6/2025Copa VenezuelaCopa Venezuela · Round of 16Estadio Olimpico de la UCV

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Metropolitanos FC48%
×Draw26%
Caracas FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metropolitanos FC
1.54
Caracas FC
1.07

Metropolitanos FC creates 44% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.50
Caracas FC
1.14

allows per match

Metropolitanos FC
1.00
Caracas FC
1.57

finishing

Metropolitanos FC+0.00on par
Caracas FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metropolitanos FC ↓

Caracas FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Metropolitanos FC or draw
74%
Metropolitanos FC or Caracas FC
74%
Draw or Caracas FC
52%

Winning margin

Metropolitanos FC wins by 2+
24%
Caracas FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Metropolitanos FC 1+ goals
79%
Metropolitanos FC 2+ goals
45%
Metropolitanos FC 3+ goals
20%
Caracas FC 1+ goals
66%
Caracas FC 2+ goals
29%
Caracas FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Metropolitanos FC (draw refunded)
65%
Caracas FC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metropolitanos FC at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Caracas FC away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metropolitanos FC attack 1.50 + Caracas FC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.54

Caracas FC attack 1.14 + Metropolitanos FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Metropolitanos FC scores more
48%
level
26%
Caracas FC scores more
26%

Metropolitanos FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Metropolitanos FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
M. Vegas
41'
J. Ramirez
57'
J. Murillo
90'
R. Blanco
Metropolitanos
Caracas
Francesco Stifano Garzone
Manager: Francesco Stifano Garzone
Fernando Luis Aristeguieta de Luca
Manager: Fernando Luis Aristeguieta de Luca

Match Recap: Metropolitanos FC vs Caracas FC

Metropolitanos FC and Caracas FC drew 2-2 in Copa Venezuela on August 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Vegas (19'), J. Ramirez (41'), J. Murillo (57'), R. Blanco (90').

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de la UCV in Caracas.