Metallurg Lipetsk 1–0 Dinamo Bryansk

Metallurg Lipetsk

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Bryansk

5/10/2025

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk40%

×Draw28%

Dinamo Bryansk33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metallurg LipetskExpected goals in this matchDinamo Bryansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.13

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.27

Dinamo Bryansk

1.13

Metallurg Lipetsk creates 12% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 47 away

1.76

creates per match

1.53

0.72

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.76

Dinamo Bryansk

1.53

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

0.72

Dinamo Bryansk

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw

67%

Metallurg Lipetsk or Dinamo Bryansk

72%

Draw or Dinamo Bryansk

60%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

18%

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

72%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

36%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

14%

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals

68%

Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals

31%

Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

55%

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.72 · 54 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.77 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.76 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.27

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.53 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

40%

level

28%

Dinamo Bryansk scores more

33%

Metallurg Lipetsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Metallurg Lipetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff