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Dinamo Bryansk vs Metallurg Lipetsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
8/25/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 6Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dinamo Bryansk47%
×Draw27%
Metallurg Lipetsk26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bryansk
1.44
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.00

Dinamo Bryansk creates 44% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bryansk
1.39
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.17

allows per match

Dinamo Bryansk
0.83
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.50

finishing

Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par
Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bryansk ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Bryansk or draw
74%
Dinamo Bryansk or Metallurg Lipetsk
73%
Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk
53%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
23%
Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
76%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
42%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
18%
Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
63%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
26%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
64%
Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bryansk at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.39 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.17 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dinamo Bryansk scores more
47%
level
27%
Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
26%

Dinamo Bryansk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Bryansk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Bryansk vs Metallurg Lipetsk

Dinamo Bryansk beat Metallurg Lipetsk 3-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Bryansk.