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Metallurg Lipetsk vs Dinamo Bryansk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Dinamo Bryansk
Dinamo Bryansk
10/19/2024Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 14Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk40%
×Draw28%
Dinamo Bryansk32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.25
Dinamo Bryansk
1.08

Metallurg Lipetsk creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.11
Dinamo Bryansk
1.11

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk
1.06
Dinamo Bryansk
1.39

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par
Dinamo Bryansk+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Dinamo Bryansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw
68%
Metallurg Lipetsk or Dinamo Bryansk
72%
Draw or Dinamo Bryansk
60%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
18%
Dinamo Bryansk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
71%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
36%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
13%
Dinamo Bryansk 1+ goals
66%
Dinamo Bryansk 2+ goals
29%
Dinamo Bryansk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
56%
Dinamo Bryansk (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Dinamo Bryansk away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.11 + Dinamo Bryansk defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dinamo Bryansk attack 1.11 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
40%
level
28%
Dinamo Bryansk scores more
32%

Metallurg Lipetsk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Metallurg Lipetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Metallurg Lipetsk 4–1 Dinamo Bryansk

Metallurg Lipetsk beat Dinamo Bryansk 4-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg in Lipetsk.