Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1–3 Kryvbas KR

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Kryvbas KR

B. Vachiberadze 39'

M. Zaderaka 68', 3'

O. Kozhushko 32'

10/20/2023

Premier League · Round 11Stadion Livyi Bereh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv45%

×Draw25%

Kryvbas KR30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalist 1925 KharkivExpected goals in this matchKryvbas KR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.26

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.58

Kryvbas KR

1.26

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.61

creates per match

1.18

1.34

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.61

Kryvbas KR

1.18

allows per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv

1.34

Kryvbas KR

1.54

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.50scores less

Kryvbas KR-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ↓

Kryvbas KR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or draw

70%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or Kryvbas KR

75%

Draw or Kryvbas KR

55%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+

23%

Kryvbas KR wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals

79%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals

47%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals

21%

Kryvbas KR 1+ goals

72%

Kryvbas KR 2+ goals

36%

Kryvbas KR 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)

59%

Kryvbas KR (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 9 matches

Kryvbas KR away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.61 + Kryvbas KR defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kryvbas KR attack 1.18 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more

45%

level

25%

Kryvbas KR scores more

30%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

94

M. Zaderaka

Kryvbas KR · M

9.3

Match Events

3'

M. Zaderaka↳ M. Tatarkov

25'

Andrii Boriachuk

32'

O. Kozhushko↳ R. Debelko

39'

B. Vachiberadze

42'

Vladyslav Dmytrenko

45'

Djihad Bizimana

46'

V. Semotiuk← D. Bizimana

53'

J. Poé← D. Kuzyk

59'

K. Bychek← V. Dmytrenko

59'

O. Sydorov← A. Boriachuk

59'

D. Yusov← Y. Martyniuk

68'

M. Zaderaka

79'

Ari Moura← R. Rusyn

79'

D. Kapinus← M. Faryna

83'

P. Adu← O. Kozhushko

90'

Tymur Stetskov

90+2'

D. Honcharuk← M. Tatarkov

90+2'

V. Bliznichenko← M. Zaderaka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MetalistKryvbas

Overview

61%Possession39%

8Total Shots17

1.83Expected Goals (xG)2.91

1Corners11

8Fouls21

Shots

8Total Shots17

3On Target8

4Off Target5

0Blocked4

7Inside Box8

1Outside Box9

Passing

61%Possession39%

450Total Passes256

391Accurate Passes198

87%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls21

2Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3

Match Recap: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR

Kryvbas KR beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3-1 in Premier League on October 20, 2023.

Goals: M. Zaderaka (3', 68'), O. Kozhushko (32'), B. Vachiberadze (39').

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv controlled possession (61%) and registered 8 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Kiev.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Kryvbas KR