Kryvbas KR vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv — Premier League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 9+ matches
Kryvbas KR31%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv43%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv creates 21% more chances
Season form · 9 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kryvbas KR ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kryvbas KR at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.73 · 9 matches
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.87 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kryvbas KR attack 1.46 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.17
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.10 + Kryvbas KR defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.42
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Kryvbas KR substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Chornomorets
Shakhtar Donetsk
Dynamo Kyiv
Zorya Luhansk
Obolon'-Brovar
BukovynaKryvbas KR
Polessya
Veres Rivne
Kolos KovalivkaMetalist 1925 Kharkiv
LNZ Cherkasy
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Livyi Bereh
Karpaty
KudrivkaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kryvbas KR host Metalist 1925 Kharkiv on Sunday, 28 April 2024 at 15:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Kryvbas KR vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Kryvbas KR beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3-0 in Premier League on April 28, 2024.
Goals: M. Zaderaka (5'), A. Mykytyshyn (37'), M. Luniov (43').
The match was played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva in Krivoj Rog.