Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs Hirnyk — Premier League 2026

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hirnyk
Hirnyk
T. Korablin 90+4'
M. Zaderaka 46'
5/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv45%
×Draw25%
Hirnyk30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.58
Hirnyk
1.26

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.61
Hirnyk
1.18

allows per match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1.34
Hirnyk
1.54

finishing

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv-0.50scores less
Hirnyk-0.10scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv ↓

Hirnyk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or draw
70%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv or Hirnyk
75%
Draw or Hirnyk
55%

Winning margin

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv wins by 2+
23%
Hirnyk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1+ goals
79%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2+ goals
47%
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3+ goals
21%
Hirnyk 1+ goals
72%
Hirnyk 2+ goals
36%
Hirnyk 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (draw refunded)
59%
Hirnyk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.34 · 9 matches

Hirnyk away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.54 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.61 + Hirnyk defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Hirnyk attack 1.18 + Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv scores more
45%
level
25%
Hirnyk scores more
30%

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Metalist 1925 Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
Dmytro Kravchenko
46'
M. Zaderaka
59'
V. Dmytrenko← A. Remenyuk
59'
K. Bychek← B. Vachiberadze
63'
M. Tatarkov← M. Zaderaka
73'
A. Abdullaev← D. Kravchenko
73'
T. Korablin← V. Semotyuk
74'
Ihor Kurylo
82'
V. Ostrovskyi← A. Chyruk
84'
Kostiantyn Bychek
90+2'
Andriy Klishchuk
90+2'
D. Shevchenko← D. Sosah
90+2'
Y. Opanasenko← A. Ponedelnik
90+4'
T. Korablin↳ R. Kapič

Shots

3Metalist

Statistics

MetalistHirnyk
Overview
3Total Shots10
2Corners3
16Fouls11
Shots
3Total Shots10
2On Target5
1Off Target4
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
4Offsides2

Premier League: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0–2 Hirnyk

Hirnyk beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2-0 in Premier League on May 29, 2023.

Goals: M. Zaderaka (46'), T. Korablin (90+4').

The match was played at Stadion NTK im. B. M. Bannikova in Kiev.