Metalac GM 2–0 Backa: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Metalac GM

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Backa

8/24/2019

Prva Liga · Round 5Stadion FK Metalac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Metalac GM51%

×Draw28%

Backa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metalac GMExpected goals in this matchBacka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.80

Metalac GM

1.39

Backa

0.80

Metalac GM creates 74% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 34 away

1.49

creates per match

0.74

0.86

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Metalac GM

1.49

Backa

0.74

allows per match

Metalac GM

0.86

Backa

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metalac GM+0.00on par

Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metalac GM ↓

Backa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Metalac GM or draw

78%

Metalac GM or Backa

72%

Draw or Backa

49%

Winning margin

Metalac GM wins by 2+

25%

Backa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Metalac GM 1+ goals

75%

Metalac GM 2+ goals

40%

Metalac GM 3+ goals

16%

Backa 1+ goals

55%

Backa 2+ goals

19%

Backa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Metalac GM (draw refunded)

70%

Backa (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metalac GM at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.86 · 71 matches

Backa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metalac GM attack 1.49 + Backa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.39

Backa attack 0.74 + Metalac GM defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Metalac GM scores more

51%

level

28%

Backa scores more

22%

Metalac GM at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Metalac GM will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff