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Backa vs Metalac GM — Super Liga 2018

Backa
Backa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Metalac GM
Metalac GM
12/7/2020Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 17Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Backa40%
×Draw26%
Metalac GM34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backa
1.41
Metalac GM
1.28

Backa creates 10% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

Backa
0.97
Metalac GM
1.05

allows per match

Backa
1.51
Metalac GM
1.84

finishing

Backa+0.00on par
Metalac GM+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

Metalac GM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Backa or draw
66%
Backa or Metalac GM
74%
Draw or Metalac GM
60%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+
19%
Metalac GM wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals
76%
Backa 2+ goals
41%
Backa 3+ goals
17%
Metalac GM 1+ goals
72%
Metalac GM 2+ goals
37%
Metalac GM 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)
54%
Metalac GM (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.51 · 37 matches

Metalac GM away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.84 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 0.97 + Metalac GM defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.41

Metalac GM attack 1.05 + Backa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Backa scores more
40%
level
26%
Metalac GM scores more
34%

Backa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Backa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Backa 3–1 Metalac GM

Backa beat Metalac GM 3-1 in Super Liga on December 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava in Bačka Palanka.