Backa 3–1 Metalac GM: Result & Stats | Prva Liga

Backa

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Metalac GM

11/18/2019

Prva Liga · Round 20Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Backa48%

×Draw29%

Metalac GM23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BackaExpected goals in this matchMetalac GM

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.81

Backa

1.31

Metalac GM

0.81

Backa creates 62% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 70 away

1.36

creates per match

0.86

0.76

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Backa

1.36

Metalac GM

0.86

allows per match

Backa

0.76

Metalac GM

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Backa+0.00on par

Metalac GM+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

Metalac GM →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Backa or draw

77%

Backa or Metalac GM

71%

Draw or Metalac GM

52%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+

23%

Metalac GM wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals

73%

Backa 2+ goals

38%

Backa 3+ goals

14%

Metalac GM 1+ goals

56%

Metalac GM 2+ goals

19%

Metalac GM 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)

68%

Metalac GM (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

Metalac GM away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.26 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 1.36 + Metalac GM defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Metalac GM attack 0.86 + Backa defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Backa scores more

48%

level

29%

Metalac GM scores more

23%

Backa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Backa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff