Merani Tbilisi 1–2 Samtredia: Result & Stats

Merani Tbilisi

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Samtredia

Z. Tevzadze 8'

N. Qurbanov 54' (pen)

S. Kerdzevadze 49'

7/17/2020

Erovnuli Liga · Round 3Sport-kompleksi Shatili

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Merani Tbilisi30%

×Draw24%

Samtredia46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Merani TbilisiExpected goals in this matchSamtredia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.64

Merani Tbilisi

1.27

Samtredia

1.64

Samtredia creates 29% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 66 away

0.56

creates per match

1.05

2.22

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Merani Tbilisi

0.56

Samtredia

1.05

allows per match

Merani Tbilisi

2.22

Samtredia

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Tbilisi ↓

Samtredia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Merani Tbilisi or draw

54%

Merani Tbilisi or Samtredia

76%

Draw or Samtredia

70%

Winning margin

Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+

13%

Samtredia wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals

72%

Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals

36%

Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals

14%

Samtredia 1+ goals

81%

Samtredia 2+ goals

49%

Samtredia 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)

39%

Samtredia (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Tbilisi at home — creates 0.56, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Tbilisi attack 0.56 + Samtredia defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.27

Samtredia attack 1.05 + Merani Tbilisi defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Merani Tbilisi scores more

30%

level

24%

Samtredia scores more

46%

Samtredia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Z. Tevzadze

44'

D. Popkhadze

46'

M. Kvirkvia← Ricardo Ferreira

46'

S. Kerdzevadze← A. Mesiachenko

48'

G. Datunaishvili← G. Kakhelishvili

49'

S. Kerdzevadze

53'

K. Kakashvili

54'

N. QurbanovPenalty

68'

G. Mikaberidze← G. Vasadze

70'

G. Khabuliani← D. Natchkebia

90+3'

G. Akhaladze

90'

L. Kochladze← Diego Diz

Merani

Samtredia

19

2

6

16

29

31

▼

Ferreira

17

⚽

Qurbanov

23

▼

Diz

26

Pavišić

20

▼

9

25

17

26

28

⚽

Tevzadze

6

▼

13

2

19

11

▼

Kakhelish

30

Sardalish

12

▼

Natchkebi

Manager: G. Daraselia

48'▲G. Datunaishvili←▼G. Kakhelishvili

68'▲G. Mikaberidze←▼G. Vasadze

70'▲G. Khabuliani←▼D. Natchkebia

Merani Tbilisi substitutes

29Datunaishvili7Mikaberidze18Khabuliani5Nusuev8Shengelidze9Gogolashvili27Karkuzashvili32Shekriladze33Pipia

Manager: K. Katcharava

46'▲M. Kvirkvia←▼Ricardo Ferreira

46'▲S. Kerdzevadze←▼A. Mesiachenko

90'▲L. Kochladze←▼Diego Diz

Samtredia substitutes

7Kvirkvia27Kerdzevadze8Kochladze4Chakvetadze12Kulua22Inkoom33Totadze

Match Recap: Merani Tbilisi vs Samtredia

Samtredia beat Merani Tbilisi 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga on July 17, 2020.

Goals: Z. Tevzadze (8'), S. Kerdzevadze (49'), N. Qurbanov (54' pen).

The match was played at Sport-kompleksi Shatili in Tbilisi.

Merani Tbilisi vs Samtredia — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Merani Tbilisi vs Samtredia