Merani Tbilisi 2–1 Samtredia: Result & Stats

Merani Tbilisi

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Samtredia

G. Nikabadze 75'

G. Pipia 65'

S. Pavišić 90'

7/2/2019

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 17Stadioni Spaeri (Tbilisi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Merani Tbilisi42%

×Draw24%

Samtredia34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Merani TbilisiExpected goals in this matchSamtredia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.38

Merani Tbilisi

1.57

Samtredia

1.38

Merani Tbilisi creates 14% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 52 away

1.77

creates per match

1.12

1.63

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Merani Tbilisi

1.77

Samtredia

1.12

allows per match

Merani Tbilisi

1.63

Samtredia

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Tbilisi ↓

Samtredia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Merani Tbilisi or draw

66%

Merani Tbilisi or Samtredia

76%

Draw or Samtredia

58%

Winning margin

Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+

21%

Samtredia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals

79%

Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals

46%

Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals

21%

Samtredia 1+ goals

75%

Samtredia 2+ goals

40%

Samtredia 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)

56%

Samtredia (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Tbilisi at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.63 · 64 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.77 + Samtredia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.57

Samtredia attack 1.12 + Merani Tbilisi defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Merani Tbilisi scores more

42%

level

24%

Samtredia scores more

34%

Merani Tbilisi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Merani Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. Razhamashvili← A. Mesiachenko

65'

G. Pipia

72'

D. Bolkvadze← G. Pipia

75'

G. Nikabadze

76'

I. Khabelashvili← B. Gabiskiria

78'

Z. Khabeishvili← G. Samushia

80'

V. Shengelidze← G. Nikabadze

81'

S. Pavišić← D. Dobrovolski

90'

S. Pavišić

Merani

Samtredia

19

6

3

4

16

7

23

▼

Dobrovols

33

▼

Samushia

10

Endeladze

20

▼

11

25

17

28

26

14

10

3

19

▼

Gabiskiri

33

⚽

▼

Pipia

11

Kakhelish

21

⚽

▼

Nikabadze

Manager: A. Shengelia

72'▲D. Bolkvadze←▼G. Pipia

76'▲I. Khabelashvili←▼B. Gabiskiria

80'▲V. Shengelidze←▼G. Nikabadze

Merani Tbilisi substitutes

24Bolkvadze9Khabelashvili30Shengelidze7Mikaberidze32Shekriladze22Chikovani27Karkuzashvili

Manager: K. Katcharava

46'▲D. Razhamashvili←▼A. Mesiachenko

78'▲Z. Khabeishvili←▼G. Samushia

81'▲S. Pavišić←▼D. Dobrovolski

Samtredia substitutes

28Razhamashvili9Khabeishvili26Pavišić2Tsertsvadze30Sturua21Tcheishvili27Kerdzevadze

Match Recap: Merani Tbilisi vs Samtredia

Merani Tbilisi beat Samtredia 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on July 2, 2019.

Goals: G. Pipia (65'), G. Nikabadze (75'), S. Pavišić (90').

The match was played at Stadioni Spaeri (Tbilisi).

Merani Tbilisi vs Samtredia — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Merani Tbilisi vs Samtredia