Merani Martvili 2–0 Gonio: Result & Stats

Merani Martvili

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gonio

L. Gadilia 88'

J. Esonkulov 61' (pen)

9/20/2025

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 24Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Merani Martvili44%

×Draw25%

Gonio31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Merani MartviliExpected goals in this matchGonio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.21

Merani Martvili

1.50

Gonio

1.21

Merani Martvili creates 24% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 18 away

1.51

creates per match

1.00

1.41

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Merani Martvili

1.51

Gonio

1.00

allows per match

Merani Martvili

1.41

Gonio

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Gonio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Martvili ↓

Gonio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Merani Martvili or draw

69%

Merani Martvili or Gonio

75%

Draw or Gonio

56%

Winning margin

Merani Martvili wins by 2+

22%

Gonio wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Merani Martvili 1+ goals

78%

Merani Martvili 2+ goals

44%

Merani Martvili 3+ goals

19%

Gonio 1+ goals

70%

Gonio 2+ goals

34%

Gonio 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)

59%

Gonio (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Martvili at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

Gonio away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Martvili attack 1.51 + Gonio defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Gonio attack 1.00 + Merani Martvili defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Merani Martvili scores more

44%

level

25%

Gonio scores more

31%

Merani Martvili at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Merani Martvili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

G. Gazdeliani← I. Komakhidze

11'

33'

40'

40'

41'

43'

46'

Z. Sikharulia← L. Kadaria

59'

O. Mamasakhlisi

61'

J. EsonkulovPenalty

68'

L. Gadilia← S. Jalolov

68'

T. Abuselidze← T. Karuuombe

74'

S. Tsulaia← A. Shamatava

88'

L. Gadilia

90+4'

J. Khmelidze← D. Khorava

90+4'

D. Bolotashvili← B. Laghadze

Merani

Gonio

19

27

16

6

40

▼

23

38

10

12

17

3

▼

1

26

3

25

2

▼

Jalolov

19

▼

Khorava

8

▼

Kadaria

33

▼

Laghadze

40

▼

Shamatava

17

Gvasalia

7

⚽

Esonkulov

Manager: G. Khelaia

46'▲Z. Sikharulia←▼L. Kadaria

68'▲L. Gadilia←▼S. Jalolov

74'▲S. Tsulaia←▼A. Shamatava

90+4'▲J. Khmelidze←▼D. Khorava

90+4'▲D. Bolotashvili←▼B. Laghadze

Merani Martvili substitutes

31Chachava10Sikharulia14Begalishvili16Gadilia18Tsulaia22Khmelidze30Bolotashvili

Manager: L. Jokhadze

10'▲G. Gazdeliani←▼I. Komakhidze

68'▲T. Abuselidze←▼T. Karuuombe

Gonio substitutes

33Takidze5Samsonia8Gazdeliani9Abuselidze15Verulidze30Nagervadze35Kasradze

Erovnuli Liga 2: Merani Martvili 2–0 Gonio

Merani Martvili beat Gonio 2-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on September 20, 2025.

Goals: J. Esonkulov (61' pen), L. Gadilia (88').

The match was played at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava in Martvili.

Merani Martvili vs Gonio — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Erovnuli Liga 2: Merani Martvili 2–0 Gonio