Gonio 4–0 Merani Martvili: Result & Stats

Gonio

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Merani Martvili

K. Kakhabrishvili 78'

M. Twickenham 66'

Vinicius Belotti 58'

E. Jijavadze 6'

11/21/2025

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 33Kobuleti Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gonio38%

×Draw25%

Merani Martvili37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GonioExpected goals in this matchMerani Martvili

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.47

Gonio

1.48

Merani Martvili

1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 83 away

1.33

creates per match

1.27

1.67

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Gonio

1.33

Merani Martvili

1.27

allows per match

Gonio

1.67

Merani Martvili

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gonio+0.00on par

Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gonio ↓

Merani Martvili →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Gonio or draw

63%

Gonio or Merani Martvili

75%

Draw or Merani Martvili

62%

Winning margin

Gonio wins by 2+

18%

Merani Martvili wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Gonio 1+ goals

77%

Gonio 2+ goals

43%

Gonio 3+ goals

19%

Merani Martvili 1+ goals

77%

Merani Martvili 2+ goals

43%

Merani Martvili 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Gonio (draw refunded)

50%

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gonio at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gonio attack 1.33 + Merani Martvili defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Merani Martvili attack 1.27 + Gonio defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gonio scores more

38%

level

25%

Merani Martvili scores more

37%

Gonio at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gonio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

E. Jijavadze↳ L. Ingorokva

36'

41'

53'

53'

56'

T. Latsabidze← L. Gadilia

56'

D. Khorava← Z. Sikharulia

58'

Vinicius Belotti↳ L. Ingorokva

60'

I. Komakhidze

66'

M. Twickenham

67'

L. Begalishvili← B. Laghadze

67'

S. Tsulaia← R. Gagity

70'

G. Gazdeliani← I. Komakhidze

70'

G. Apkhazava← Vinicius Belotti

70'

Z. Beridze← M. Twickenham

70'

Igor Dutra← E. Jijavadze

75'

G. Ivaniadze← L. Ingorokva

76'

D. Samsonia

78'

K. Kakhabrishvili↳ Z. Beridze

81'

S. Jalolov← I. Khaymanov

84'

G. Gazdeliani

90+2'

J. Esonkulov

Gonio

Merani

1

Khamkhoev

26

Shonia

25

Mala

29

▼

Khaymanov

17

Gvasalia

4

▼

Gagity

16

▼

Gadilia

33

▼

Laghadze

10

▼

11

7

33

27

5

16

3

▼

Komakhidz

39

⚽

▼

Belotti

23

⚽

▼

Jijavadze

6

Mamasakhl

7

⚽

Kakhabris

12

A

▼

Ingorokva

37

⚽

▼

Twickenha

Manager: L. Jokhadze

70'▲G. Gazdeliani←▼I. Komakhidze

70'▲G. Apkhazava←▼Vinicius Belotti

70'▲Z. Beridze←▼M. Twickenham

70'▲Igor Dutra←▼E. Jijavadze

75'▲G. Ivaniadze←▼L. Ingorokva

Gonio substitutes

19Kotlyarov8Gazdeliani9Abuselidze10Apkhazava11Ivaniadze17Beridze20Dutra30Nagervadze38Luis

Manager: G. Khelaia

56'▲T. Latsabidze←▼L. Gadilia

56'▲D. Khorava←▼Z. Sikharulia

67'▲L. Begalishvili←▼B. Laghadze

67'▲S. Tsulaia←▼R. Gagity

81'▲S. Jalolov←▼I. Khaymanov

Merani Martvili substitutes

31Chachava2Jalolov3Latsabidze14Begalishvili18Tsulaia19Khorava