Merani Martvili 2–1 Gonio: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Merani Martvili

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Gonio

T. Jimsheleishvili 58'

J. Esonkulov 26'

G. Khetsuriani 11' (OG)

11/21/2024

Liga 3 · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Merani Martvili48%

×Draw22%

Gonio31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Merani MartviliExpected goals in this matchGonio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.59

Merani Martvili

2.02

Gonio

1.59

Merani Martvili creates 27% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 22 away

2.87

creates per match

2.18

1.00

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Merani Martvili

2.87

Gonio

2.18

allows per match

Merani Martvili

1.00

Gonio

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Gonio+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Martvili ↓

Gonio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Merani Martvili or draw

69%

Merani Martvili or Gonio

78%

Draw or Gonio

52%

Winning margin

Merani Martvili wins by 2+

27%

Gonio wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Merani Martvili 1+ goals

87%

Merani Martvili 2+ goals

60%

Merani Martvili 3+ goals

33%

Gonio 1+ goals

80%

Gonio 2+ goals

47%

Gonio 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)

61%

Gonio (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Martvili at home — creates 2.87, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Gonio away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Martvili attack 2.87 + Gonio defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 2.02

Gonio attack 2.18 + Merani Martvili defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Merani Martvili scores more

48%

level

22%

Gonio scores more

31%

Merani Martvili at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Merani Martvili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

G. KhetsurianiOwn goal

26'

J. Esonkulov

58'

T. Jimsheleishvili

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff