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Menzel Bourguiba vs EGS Gafsa — Cup 2019

Menzel Bourguiba
Menzel Bourguiba
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
EGS Gafsa
EGS Gafsaadvanced
1/10/2026CupCup · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Menzel Bourguiba48%
×Draw27%
EGS Gafsa25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Bourguiba
1.44
EGS Gafsa
0.96

Menzel Bourguiba creates 50% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Menzel Bourguiba
1.00
EGS Gafsa
1.13

allows per match

Menzel Bourguiba
0.80
EGS Gafsa
1.88

finishing

Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par
EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Bourguiba ↓

EGS Gafsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Menzel Bourguiba or draw
75%
Menzel Bourguiba or EGS Gafsa
73%
Draw or EGS Gafsa
52%

Winning margin

Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+
24%
EGS Gafsa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals
76%
Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals
42%
Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals
18%
EGS Gafsa 1+ goals
62%
EGS Gafsa 2+ goals
25%
EGS Gafsa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)
66%
EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Bourguiba at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Bourguiba attack 1.00 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.44

EGS Gafsa attack 1.13 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Menzel Bourguiba scores more
48%
level
27%
EGS Gafsa scores more
25%

Menzel Bourguiba at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Menzel Bourguiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Menzel Bourguiba vs EGS Gafsa

EGS Gafsa beat Menzel Bourguiba 2-1 in Cup on January 10, 2026.