Menzel Bourguiba 1–0 EGS Gafsa: Result & Stats

Menzel Bourguiba

1 – 0

EGS Gafsa

11/12/2017

Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundStade Azaiez Jaballah (Menzel Bourguiba)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Menzel Bourguiba50%

×Draw28%

EGS Gafsa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Menzel BourguibaExpected goals in this matchEGS Gafsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.83

Menzel Bourguiba

1.39

EGS Gafsa

0.83

Menzel Bourguiba creates 67% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

1.00

0.67

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Menzel Bourguiba

1.00

EGS Gafsa

1.00

allows per match

Menzel Bourguiba

0.67

EGS Gafsa

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Bourguiba ↓

EGS Gafsa →

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Menzel Bourguiba or draw

78%

Menzel Bourguiba or EGS Gafsa

72%

Draw or EGS Gafsa

50%

Winning margin

Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+

24%

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+

Team goals

Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals

75%

Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals

40%

Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals

16%

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals

56%

EGS Gafsa 2+ goals

20%

EGS Gafsa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)

69%

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Menzel Bourguiba at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

EGS Gafsa away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Bourguiba attack 1.00 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

EGS Gafsa attack 1.00 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Menzel Bourguiba scores more

50%

level

28%

EGS Gafsa scores more

22%

Menzel Bourguiba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Menzel Bourguiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff