EGS Gafsa 4–1 Menzel Bourguiba: Result & Stats

EGS Gafsa

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Menzel Bourguiba

T. Tlili 63'

B. Kouki 52' (OG)

M. Landolsi 32'

H. Mbarek 17'

H. Hamada 37'

1/30/2019

Cup · 16th FinalsStade du 7 Novembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

EGS Gafsa59%

×Draw20%

Menzel Bourguiba21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EGS GafsaExpected goals in this matchMenzel Bourguiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.25

EGS Gafsa

2.23

Menzel Bourguiba

1.25

EGS Gafsa creates 78% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.80

creates per match

1.00

1.50

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

EGS Gafsa

1.80

Menzel Bourguiba

1.00

allows per match

EGS Gafsa

1.50

Menzel Bourguiba

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

EGS Gafsa+0.00on par

Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EGS Gafsa ↓

Menzel Bourguiba →

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

EGS Gafsa or draw

79%

EGS Gafsa or Menzel Bourguiba

80%

Draw or Menzel Bourguiba

41%

Winning margin

EGS Gafsa wins by 2+

37%

Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+

Team goals

EGS Gafsa 1+ goals

89%

EGS Gafsa 2+ goals

65%

EGS Gafsa 3+ goals

38%

Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals

71%

Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals

36%

Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

EGS Gafsa (draw refunded)

74%

Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

EGS Gafsa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Menzel Bourguiba away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

EGS Gafsa attack 1.80 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Menzel Bourguiba attack 1.00 + EGS Gafsa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

EGS Gafsa scores more

59%

level

20%

Menzel Bourguiba scores more

21%

EGS Gafsa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "EGS Gafsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

H. Mbarek

32'

M. Landolsi

37'

H. Hamada

52'

B. KoukiOwn goal

63'

T. Tlili

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff