Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Melilla vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Melilla
Melilla
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
5/16/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 7Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Melilla44%
×Draw28%
Atlético Madrid II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla
1.30
Atlético Madrid II
0.96

Melilla creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Melilla
1.15
Atlético Madrid II
1.00

allows per match

Melilla
0.92
Atlético Madrid II
1.46

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Melilla or draw
72%
Melilla or Atlético Madrid II
72%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
56%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+
20%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals
73%
Melilla 2+ goals
37%
Melilla 3+ goals
14%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
62%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
25%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)
62%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 1.15 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.00 + Melilla defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Melilla scores more
44%
level
28%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
28%

Melilla at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Melilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melilla vs Atlético Madrid II

Melilla beat Atlético Madrid II 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Álvarez Claro in Melilla.