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Atlético Madrid II vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Melilla
Melilla
5/5/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 3Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Atlético Madrid II34%
×Draw32%
Melilla34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid II
0.93
Melilla
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.77
Melilla
1.00

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.85
Melilla
1.08

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw
66%
Atlético Madrid II or Melilla
68%
Draw or Melilla
66%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
12%
Melilla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
24%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
7%
Melilla 1+ goals
61%
Melilla 2+ goals
24%
Melilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
50%
Melilla (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 0.77 + Melilla defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.93

Melilla attack 1.00 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more
34%
level
32%
Melilla scores more
34%

Atlético Madrid II at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Madrid II 0 – 2 Melilla

Melilla beat Atlético Madrid II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino in Majadahonda.