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Atlético Madrid II vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
CANC
22:00
Melilla
Melilla
5/9/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 37Miniestadio Cerro del Espino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atlético Madrid II63%
×Draw20%
Melilla16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Madrid II
2.06
Melilla
0.93

Atlético Madrid II creates 122% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

creates per match

Atlético Madrid II
2.20
Melilla
1.14

allows per match

Atlético Madrid II
0.73
Melilla
1.93

finishing

Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid II ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid II or draw
84%
Atlético Madrid II or Melilla
80%
Draw or Melilla
37%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
39%
Melilla wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
87%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
61%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
34%
Melilla 1+ goals
61%
Melilla 2+ goals
24%
Melilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
80%
Melilla (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid II at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid II attack 2.20 + Melilla defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.06

Melilla attack 1.14 + Atlético Madrid II defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Atlético Madrid II scores more
63%
level
20%
Melilla scores more
16%

Atlético Madrid II at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Atlético Madrid II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Madrid II face Melilla (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 returns with Atlético Madrid II hosting Melilla. Match starts May 9, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Atlético Madrid II host Melilla at Miniestadio Cerro del Espino.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.