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Melilla vs Atlético Madrid II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Melilla
Melilla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Madrid II
Atlético Madrid II
12/22/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Estadio Álvarez Claro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Melilla35%
×Draw29%
Atlético Madrid II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melilla
1.08
Atlético Madrid II
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 13 away

creates per match

Melilla
0.93
Atlético Madrid II
1.46

allows per match

Melilla
0.71
Atlético Madrid II
1.23

finishing

Melilla+0.00on par
Atlético Madrid II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melilla ↓

Atlético Madrid II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Melilla or draw
65%
Melilla or Atlético Madrid II
71%
Draw or Atlético Madrid II
65%

Winning margin

Melilla wins by 2+
14%
Atlético Madrid II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Melilla 1+ goals
66%
Melilla 2+ goals
29%
Melilla 3+ goals
10%
Atlético Madrid II 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Madrid II 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Madrid II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Melilla (draw refunded)
50%
Atlético Madrid II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melilla at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Atlético Madrid II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melilla attack 0.93 + Atlético Madrid II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Atlético Madrid II attack 1.46 + Melilla defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Melilla scores more
35%
level
29%
Atlético Madrid II scores more
35%

Melilla at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Melilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melilla vs Atlético Madrid II

Atlético Madrid II beat Melilla 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 22, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Álvarez Claro in Melilla.