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Melbourne Knights vs Heidelberg United — Victoria NPL 2026

Melbourne Knights
Melbourne Knights
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Heidelberg United
Heidelberg United
J. Karantz 78'
C. Bramwell 49', 28'
M. Bisetto 66'
A. Lesiotis 53'
2/6/2025Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 1Tompsett Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Melbourne Knights36%
×Draw24%
Heidelberg United40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne Knights
1.49
Heidelberg United
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 88 away

creates per match

Melbourne Knights
1.62
Heidelberg United
1.68

allows per match

Melbourne Knights
1.51
Heidelberg United
1.36

finishing

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par
Heidelberg United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Knights ↓

Heidelberg United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Melbourne Knights or draw
60%
Melbourne Knights or Heidelberg United
76%
Draw or Heidelberg United
64%

Winning margin

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+
17%
Heidelberg United wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals
77%
Melbourne Knights 2+ goals
44%
Melbourne Knights 3+ goals
19%
Heidelberg United 1+ goals
80%
Heidelberg United 2+ goals
47%
Heidelberg United 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)
47%
Heidelberg United (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Knights at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.51 · 77 matches

Heidelberg United away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.36 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Knights attack 1.62 + Heidelberg United defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.49

Heidelberg United attack 1.68 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Melbourne Knights scores more
36%
level
24%
Heidelberg United scores more
40%

Heidelberg United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
C. Bramwell
49'
C. Bramwell
53'
A. Lesiotis
66'
M. Bisetto
78'
J. Karantz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL: Melbourne Knights 3–2 Heidelberg United

Melbourne Knights beat Heidelberg United 3-2 in Victoria NPL on February 6, 2025.

Goals: C. Bramwell (28', 49'), A. Lesiotis (53'), M. Bisetto (66'), J. Karantz (78').

The match was played at Tompsett Stadium in Melbourne.