Melbourne Knights 3–2 Heidelberg United

Melbourne Knights

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Heidelberg United

9/14/2023

Australia Cup · Quarter-finalsKnights Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Melbourne Knights35%

×Draw22%

Heidelberg United43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne KnightsExpected goals in this matchHeidelberg United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.83

Melbourne Knights

1.63

Heidelberg United

1.83

Heidelberg United creates 12% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

2.25

creates per match

2.67

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Melbourne Knights

2.25

Heidelberg United

2.67

allows per match

Melbourne Knights

1.00

Heidelberg United

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par

Heidelberg United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne Knights ↓

Heidelberg United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Melbourne Knights or draw

57%

Melbourne Knights or Heidelberg United

78%

Draw or Heidelberg United

65%

Winning margin

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+

17%

Heidelberg United wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals

80%

Melbourne Knights 2+ goals

48%

Melbourne Knights 3+ goals

22%

Heidelberg United 1+ goals

84%

Heidelberg United 2+ goals

54%

Heidelberg United 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)

45%

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne Knights at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Heidelberg United away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne Knights attack 2.25 + Heidelberg United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Heidelberg United attack 2.67 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Melbourne Knights scores more

35%

level

22%

Heidelberg United scores more

43%

Heidelberg United at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff