Heidelberg United 2–0 Melbourne Knights

Heidelberg United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Melbourne Knights

7/12/2024

Victoria NPL · Round 22Olympic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Heidelberg United53%

×Draw23%

Melbourne Knights25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Heidelberg UnitedExpected goals in this matchMelbourne Knights

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.21

Heidelberg United

1.88

Melbourne Knights

1.21

Heidelberg United creates 55% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 78 away

1.80

creates per match

1.29

1.14

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Heidelberg United

1.80

Melbourne Knights

1.29

allows per match

Heidelberg United

1.14

Melbourne Knights

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heidelberg United+0.00on par

Melbourne Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heidelberg United ↓

Melbourne Knights →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Heidelberg United or draw

75%

Heidelberg United or Melbourne Knights

77%

Draw or Melbourne Knights

47%

Winning margin

Heidelberg United wins by 2+

30%

Melbourne Knights wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Heidelberg United 1+ goals

85%

Heidelberg United 2+ goals

56%

Heidelberg United 3+ goals

29%

Melbourne Knights 1+ goals

70%

Melbourne Knights 2+ goals

34%

Melbourne Knights 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Heidelberg United (draw refunded)

68%

Melbourne Knights (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heidelberg United at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 87 matches

Melbourne Knights away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.96 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heidelberg United attack 1.80 + Melbourne Knights defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.88

Melbourne Knights attack 1.29 + Heidelberg United defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Heidelberg United scores more

53%

level

23%

Melbourne Knights scores more

25%

Heidelberg United at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Heidelberg United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff