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Melbourne City II vs Dandenong City — Victoria NPL 2026

Melbourne City II
Melbourne City II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dandenong City
Dandenong City
5/30/2026Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Melbourne City II43%
×Draw26%
Dandenong City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Melbourne City II
1.48
Dandenong City
1.23

Melbourne City II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 76 away

creates per match

Melbourne City II
1.33
Dandenong City
1.34

allows per match

Melbourne City II
1.11
Dandenong City
1.64

finishing

Melbourne City II+0.00on par
Dandenong City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City II ↓

Dandenong City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Melbourne City II or draw
68%
Melbourne City II or Dandenong City
74%
Draw or Dandenong City
57%

Winning margin

Melbourne City II wins by 2+
21%
Dandenong City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Melbourne City II 1+ goals
77%
Melbourne City II 2+ goals
43%
Melbourne City II 3+ goals
19%
Dandenong City 1+ goals
71%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
35%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City II (draw refunded)
58%
Dandenong City (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Dandenong City away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.64 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City II attack 1.33 + Dandenong City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dandenong City attack 1.34 + Melbourne City II defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Melbourne City II scores more
43%
level
26%
Dandenong City scores more
32%

Melbourne City II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Melbourne City II vs Dandenong City

Dandenong City beat Melbourne City II 1-0 in Victoria NPL on May 30, 2026.