Melbourne City II 1–3 Dandenong City

Melbourne City II

FT

1 – 3

Dandenong City

4/2/2023

Victoria NPL 2 · Round 7Parade College Soccer Pitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Melbourne City II46%

×Draw22%

Dandenong City32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Melbourne City IIExpected goals in this matchDandenong City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.57

Melbourne City II

1.94

Dandenong City

1.57

Melbourne City II creates 24% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 13 away

2.42

creates per match

1.38

1.77

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Melbourne City II

2.42

Dandenong City

1.38

allows per match

Melbourne City II

1.77

Dandenong City

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Melbourne City II+0.00on par

Dandenong City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Melbourne City II ↓

Dandenong City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Melbourne City II or draw

68%

Melbourne City II or Dandenong City

78%

Draw or Dandenong City

54%

Winning margin

Melbourne City II wins by 2+

26%

Dandenong City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Melbourne City II 1+ goals

86%

Melbourne City II 2+ goals

58%

Melbourne City II 3+ goals

30%

Dandenong City 1+ goals

79%

Dandenong City 2+ goals

46%

Dandenong City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Melbourne City II (draw refunded)

60%

Dandenong City (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Melbourne City II at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

Dandenong City away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Melbourne City II attack 2.42 + Dandenong City defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.94

Dandenong City attack 1.38 + Melbourne City II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Melbourne City II scores more

46%

level

22%

Dandenong City scores more

32%

Melbourne City II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff