Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dandenong City vs Melbourne City II — Victoria NPL 2026

Dandenong City
Dandenong City
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Melbourne City II
Melbourne City II
2/20/2026Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 2Frank Holohan Soccer Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dandenong City24%
×Draw20%
Melbourne City II56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dandenong City
1.39
Melbourne City II
2.23

Melbourne City II creates 60% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 10 away

creates per match

Dandenong City
1.58
Melbourne City II
2.50

allows per match

Dandenong City
1.97
Melbourne City II
1.20

finishing

Dandenong City+0.00on par
Melbourne City II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dandenong City ↓

Melbourne City II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Dandenong City or draw
44%
Dandenong City or Melbourne City II
80%
Draw or Melbourne City II
76%

Winning margin

Dandenong City wins by 2+
10%
Melbourne City II wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Dandenong City 1+ goals
75%
Dandenong City 2+ goals
40%
Dandenong City 3+ goals
16%
Melbourne City II 1+ goals
89%
Melbourne City II 2+ goals
65%
Melbourne City II 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Dandenong City (draw refunded)
30%
Melbourne City II (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dandenong City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.97 · 76 matches

Melbourne City II away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dandenong City attack 1.58 + Melbourne City II defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.39

Melbourne City II attack 2.50 + Dandenong City defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Dandenong City scores more
24%
level
20%
Melbourne City II scores more
56%

Melbourne City II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Melbourne City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dandenong City 2 – 4 Melbourne City II

Melbourne City II beat Dandenong City 4-2 in Victoria NPL on February 20, 2026.

The match was played at Frank Holohan Soccer Complex.