Meizhou Kejia 0–4 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Meizhou Kejia

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Beijing Guoan

F. Abreu 69', 45', 21'

Fang Hao 55'

6/25/2025

Super League · Round 15Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Meizhou Kejia44%

×Draw24%

Beijing Guoan32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meizhou KejiaExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.37

Meizhou Kejia

1.63

Beijing Guoan

1.37

Meizhou Kejia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

1.73

creates per match

1.54

1.20

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.73

Beijing Guoan

1.54

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.20

Beijing Guoan

1.52

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Meizhou Kejia-0.20scores less

Beijing Guoan+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw

68%

Meizhou Kejia or Beijing Guoan

76%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

56%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

22%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

80%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

48%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

22%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

75%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

40%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

57%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.20 · 17 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.73 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.63

Beijing Guoan attack 1.54 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more

44%

level

24%

Beijing Guoan scores more

32%

Meizhou Kejia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

F. Abreu

Beijing Guoan · F

9.5

Match Events

21'

F. Abreu↳ Guga

45'

F. Abreu↳ U. Spajic

46'

Yang Chaosheng← M. Cheukoua

46'

Fang Hao← Zhang Yuning

46'

Dawhan← Serginho

50'

Shuangjie Fan

55'

Fang Hao↳ Cao Yongjing

59'

Yang Ruiqi← Zhong Haoran

60'

Li Lei← Cao Yongjing

60'

Zhang Yuan← Guga

69'

F. Abreu↳ Zhang Yuan

72'

Chen Xuhuang← Liu Yun

73'

Feng Boxuan← Wu Shaocong

85'

Ji Shengpan← J. Ngom Mbekeli

85'

Rao Weihui← Wang Jia'nan

86'

Uroš Spajić

90+5'

Nebijan Muhmet

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MeizhouBeijing

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots13

0.52Expected Goals (xG)1.86

5Corners6

11Fouls5

Shots

7Total Shots13

3On Target8

3Off Target3

1Blocked2

4Inside Box13

3Outside Box0

Passing

45%Possession55%

365Total Passes457

294Accurate Passes381

81%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls5

0Yellow Cards3

8Offsides2