Meizhou Kejia 1–3 Beijing Guoan: Result & Stats

Meizhou Kejia

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Beijing Guoan

T. Conraad 61'

Yu Dabao 89'

Guga 73'

Li Lei 11'

9/20/2024

Super League · Round 26Wuhua Olympic Sports Center Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Meizhou Kejia40%

×Draw24%

Beijing Guoan36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meizhou KejiaExpected goals in this matchBeijing Guoan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.52

Meizhou Kejia

1.60

Beijing Guoan

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 31 away

1.68

creates per match

1.54

1.51

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.68

Beijing Guoan

1.54

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.51

Beijing Guoan

1.52

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Meizhou Kejia-0.21scores less

Beijing Guoan+0.36scores more

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Beijing Guoan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw

64%

Meizhou Kejia or Beijing Guoan

76%

Draw or Beijing Guoan

60%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

20%

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

80%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

47%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

22%

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

78%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

45%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

52%

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.51 · 19 matches

Beijing Guoan away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.68 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.60

Beijing Guoan attack 1.54 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more

40%

level

24%

Beijing Guoan scores more

36%

Meizhou Kejia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

Guga

Beijing Guoan · M

8.2

Match Events

11'

Li Lei↳ Guga

46'

Ye Chugui← Yang Chaosheng

48'

Liangming Lin

58'

Zh.W. Wei

60'

Wang Jianan← Wei Zhiwei

61'

Li Yongjia← Chen Jie

61'

T. Conraad↳ Rodrigo Henrique

66'

Fang Hao← Chi Zhongguo

73'

Guga

74'

Li Ning← T. Conraad

79'

Rao Weihui← Chen Zhechao

80'

Yu Dabao← Cao Yongjing

81'

Yang Liyu← Lin Liangming

86'

Dabao Yu

87'

Michael Ngadeu

89'

Yu Dabao↳ Fábio Abreu

90+1'

Zhang Chengdong← Guga

90+1'

Wang Ziming← Fábio Abreu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MeizhouBeijing

Overview

47%Possession53%

9Total Shots13

1.04Expected Goals (xG)0.94

4Corners4

16Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots13

5On Target5

4Off Target4

0Blocked4

7Inside Box6

2Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

412Total Passes475

355Accurate Passes408

86%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls16

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1