Beijing Guoan 5–1 Meizhou Kejia: Result & Stats

Beijing Guoan

FT

5 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Meizhou Kejia

F. Abreu 87', 71', 45', 18'

Zhang Yuning 56'

E. Omarsson 64'

11/22/2025

Super League · Round 30Workers' Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Beijing Guoan62%

×Draw20%

Meizhou Kejia18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing GuoanExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.13

Beijing Guoan

2.23

Meizhou Kejia

1.13

Beijing Guoan creates 97% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 16 away

2.08

creates per match

1.03

1.23

allows per match

2.37

creates per match

Beijing Guoan

2.08

Meizhou Kejia

1.03

allows per match

Beijing Guoan

1.23

Meizhou Kejia

2.37

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Beijing Guoan+0.20scores more

Meizhou Kejia-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Guoan ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Beijing Guoan or draw

82%

Beijing Guoan or Meizhou Kejia

80%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

38%

Winning margin

Beijing Guoan wins by 2+

39%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Beijing Guoan 1+ goals

89%

Beijing Guoan 2+ goals

65%

Beijing Guoan 3+ goals

38%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

68%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

31%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Beijing Guoan (draw refunded)

77%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Guoan at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.23 · 29 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.37 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Guoan attack 2.08 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.23

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.03 + Beijing Guoan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Beijing Guoan scores more

62%

level

20%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

18%

Beijing Guoan at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Beijing Guoan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

F. Abreu

Beijing Guoan · F

10.0

Match Events

8'

Fabio AbreuGoal cancelled

18'

22'

45+4'

45'

46'

Rao Weihui← Yang Yihu

46'

Wei Xiangxin← Liu Yun

56'

Zhang Yuning

60'

Fang Hao← Cao Yongjing

60'

Wang Ziming← Lin Liangming

64'

E. Omarsson↳ J. Ngom Mbekeli

65'

Chen Xuhuang← Zhong Haoran

65'

Yang Chaosheng← Wang Jia'nan

70'

Zhang Xizhe← Zhang Yuning

71'

F. Abreu↳ Zhang Xizhe

75'

Tian Ziyi← Liao Junjian

78'

78'

87'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BeijingMeizhou

Overview

62%Possession38%

30Total Shots9

6Corners6

17Fouls15

Shots

30Total Shots9

16On Target4

6Off Target3

8Blocked2

22Inside Box6

8Outside Box3

Passing

62%Possession38%

448Total Passes264

400Accurate Passes179

89%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

3Saves11

Discipline

17Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2

Super League: Beijing Guoan 5–1 Meizhou Kejia

Beijing Guoan beat Meizhou Kejia 5-1 in Super League on November 22, 2025.

Goals: F. Abreu (18', 45', 71', 87'), Zhang Yuning (56'), E. Omarsson (64').

Beijing Guoan controlled possession (62%) and registered 30 shots to 9.

The match was played at Workers' Stadium in Beijing.

Beijing Guoan vs Meizhou Kejia — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Super League: Beijing Guoan 5–1 Meizhou Kejia