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Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Baxy — FA Cup 2019

Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
8/19/2021FA CupFA Cup · 3rd Preliminary RoundHuitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Meizhou Kejia15%
×Draw20%
Beijing Baxy65%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Kejia
0.90
Beijing Baxy
2.13

Beijing Baxy creates 137% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia
0.00
Beijing Baxy
1.60

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia
2.67
Beijing Baxy
1.80

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw
35%
Meizhou Kejia or Beijing Baxy
80%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
85%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
5%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
59%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
23%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
6%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
88%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
63%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
19%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 0.00 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Beijing Baxy attack 1.60 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more
15%
level
20%
Beijing Baxy scores more
65%

Beijing Baxy at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Meizhou Kejia 0–1 Beijing Baxy

Beijing Baxy beat Meizhou Kejia 1-0 in FA Cup on August 19, 2021.

The match was played at Huitang Stadium in Wuhua.