Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
8/10/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 7Hengli Soccer Town #9 Soccerpitch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Meizhou Kejia49%
×Draw24%
Beijing Baxy26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Kejia
1.68
Beijing Baxy
1.16

Meizhou Kejia creates 45% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 71 away

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.80
Beijing Baxy
1.07

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.25
Beijing Baxy
1.56

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw
74%
Meizhou Kejia or Beijing Baxy
76%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
51%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
26%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
81%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
50%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
24%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
69%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
32%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
65%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.80 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more
49%
level
24%
Beijing Baxy scores more
26%

Meizhou Kejia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meizhou Kejia vs Beijing Baxy

Meizhou Kejia beat Beijing Baxy 2-1 in League One on August 10, 2021.

The match was played at Hengli Soccer Town #9 Soccerpitch in Dongguan.