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Beijing Baxy vs Meizhou Kejia — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
7/21/2021League OneLeague One · 2nd Phase - 3Huitang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Beijing Baxy38%
×Draw26%
Meizhou Kejia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.38
Meizhou Kejia
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 63 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
Meizhou Kejia
1.49

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
Meizhou Kejia
1.38

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Meizhou Kejia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
64%
Beijing Baxy or Meizhou Kejia
74%
Draw or Meizhou Kejia
62%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
18%
Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
75%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
40%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
16%
Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
73%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
38%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
52%
Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.38 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.49 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
38%
level
26%
Meizhou Kejia scores more
36%

Beijing Baxy at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Beijing Baxy 1–3 Meizhou Kejia

Meizhou Kejia beat Beijing Baxy 3-1 in League One on July 21, 2021.

The match was played at Huitang Stadium in Wuhua.