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Mbeya City vs Dodoma Jiji — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Mbeya City
Mbeya City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
E. Ambokile 90'
Z. Sereri 68'
C. Zigah 17'
12/18/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 16Sokoine Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Mbeya City47%
×Draw28%
Dodoma Jiji25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mbeya City
1.31
Dodoma Jiji
0.86

Mbeya City creates 52% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 22 away

creates per match

Mbeya City
0.86
Dodoma Jiji
0.59

allows per match

Mbeya City
1.14
Dodoma Jiji
1.77

finishing

Mbeya City+0.00on par
Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mbeya City ↓

Dodoma Jiji →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mbeya City or draw
75%
Mbeya City or Dodoma Jiji
72%
Draw or Dodoma Jiji
53%

Winning margin

Mbeya City wins by 2+
22%
Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mbeya City 1+ goals
73%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
38%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
14%
Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
58%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
21%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mbeya City (draw refunded)
66%
Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mbeya City at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Dodoma Jiji away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mbeya City attack 0.86 + Dodoma Jiji defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.31

Dodoma Jiji attack 0.59 + Mbeya City defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mbeya City scores more
47%
level
28%
Dodoma Jiji scores more
25%

Mbeya City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mbeya City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
C. Zigah
68'
Z. Sereri
90'
E. Ambokile

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mbeya City vs Dodoma Jiji

Dodoma Jiji beat Mbeya City 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 18, 2022.

Goals: C. Zigah (17'), Z. Sereri (68'), E. Ambokile (90').

The match was played at Sokoine Stadium in Mbeya.