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Dodoma Jiji vs Mbeya City — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mbeya City
Mbeya City
I. Kipagwile 28'
A. Buha 13'
6/27/2026Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 29Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Dodoma Jiji42%
×Draw27%
Mbeya City30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dodoma Jiji
1.35
Mbeya City
1.10

Dodoma Jiji creates 23% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji
1.10
Mbeya City
1.10

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji
1.10
Mbeya City
1.60

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par
Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

Mbeya City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw
70%
Dodoma Jiji or Mbeya City
73%
Draw or Mbeya City
58%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
20%
Mbeya City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
74%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
39%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
15%
Mbeya City 1+ goals
67%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
30%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
58%
Mbeya City (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.10 + Mbeya City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mbeya City attack 1.10 + Dodoma Jiji defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more
42%
level
27%
Mbeya City scores more
30%

Dodoma Jiji at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dodoma Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
A. Buha
28'
I. Kipagwile
61'

Possession

52%Dodoma

Shots

5Dodoma

Statistics

DodomaMbeya
Overview
52%Possession48%
5Total Shots2
1Corners2
Shots
5Total Shots2
1On Target2
4Off Target0
0Blocked0
Passing
52%Possession48%
Discipline
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Ligi kuu Bara: Dodoma Jiji 1–1 Mbeya City

Dodoma Jiji and Mbeya City drew 1-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on June 27, 2026.

Goals: A. Buha (13'), I. Kipagwile (28').

Dodoma Jiji controlled possession (52%) and registered 5 shots to 2.

The match was played at Jamhuri Stadium.