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Dodoma Jiji vs Mbeya City — Ligi kuu Bara 2025

Dodoma Jiji
Dodoma Jiji
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Mbeya City
Mbeya City
4/23/2022Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 21Jamhuri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Dodoma Jiji49%
×Draw27%
Mbeya City24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dodoma Jiji
1.42
Mbeya City
0.92

Dodoma Jiji creates 54% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 21 away

creates per match

Dodoma Jiji
1.17
Mbeya City
1.00

allows per match

Dodoma Jiji
0.83
Mbeya City
1.67

finishing

Dodoma Jiji+0.00on par
Mbeya City+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dodoma Jiji ↓

Mbeya City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dodoma Jiji or draw
76%
Dodoma Jiji or Mbeya City
73%
Draw or Mbeya City
51%

Winning margin

Dodoma Jiji wins by 2+
24%
Mbeya City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dodoma Jiji 1+ goals
76%
Dodoma Jiji 2+ goals
41%
Dodoma Jiji 3+ goals
17%
Mbeya City 1+ goals
60%
Mbeya City 2+ goals
23%
Mbeya City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dodoma Jiji (draw refunded)
67%
Mbeya City (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dodoma Jiji at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 24 matches

Mbeya City away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dodoma Jiji attack 1.17 + Mbeya City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Mbeya City attack 1.00 + Dodoma Jiji defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dodoma Jiji scores more
49%
level
27%
Mbeya City scores more
24%

Dodoma Jiji at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dodoma Jiji will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Dodoma Jiji 2–1 Mbeya City

Dodoma Jiji beat Mbeya City 2-1 in Ligi kuu Bara on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Jamhuri Stadium in Dodoma.