Masafi 0–0 Dubai City: Result & Stats | Division 1

Masafi

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dubai City

11/4/2022

Division 1 · Round 9Masafi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Masafi47%

×Draw25%

Dubai City28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MasafiExpected goals in this matchDubai City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.19

Masafi

1.61

Dubai City

1.19

Masafi creates 35% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 17 away

1.34

creates per match

1.00

1.38

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Masafi

1.34

Dubai City

1.00

allows per match

Masafi

1.38

Dubai City

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Masafi+0.00on par

Dubai City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masafi ↓

Dubai City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Masafi or draw

72%

Masafi or Dubai City

75%

Draw or Dubai City

53%

Winning margin

Masafi wins by 2+

24%

Dubai City wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Masafi 1+ goals

80%

Masafi 2+ goals

48%

Masafi 3+ goals

22%

Dubai City 1+ goals

70%

Dubai City 2+ goals

33%

Dubai City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Masafi (draw refunded)

63%

Dubai City (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masafi at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Dubai City away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masafi attack 1.34 + Dubai City defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.61

Dubai City attack 1.00 + Masafi defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Masafi scores more

47%

level

25%

Dubai City scores more

28%

Masafi at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Masafi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff