Dubai City 1–6 Masafi: Result & Stats | Division 1

Dubai City

FT

1 – 6

HT: 1 – 1

Masafi

N. Khamis 18'

L. Monyuytaah 87', 79'

I. James 86', 63'

E. Noumonvi 55'

R. Abdulla 10'

5/26/2024

Division 1 · Round 33Masafi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dubai City27%

×Draw24%

Masafi49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dubai CityExpected goals in this matchMasafi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.74

Dubai City

1.22

Masafi

1.74

Masafi creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

1.00

creates per match

1.28

2.20

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Dubai City

1.00

Masafi

1.28

allows per match

Dubai City

2.20

Masafi

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dubai City+0.00on par

Masafi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubai City ↓

Masafi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Dubai City or draw

51%

Dubai City or Masafi

76%

Draw or Masafi

73%

Winning margin

Dubai City wins by 2+

11%

Masafi wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Dubai City 1+ goals

70%

Dubai City 2+ goals

34%

Dubai City 3+ goals

12%

Masafi 1+ goals

82%

Masafi 2+ goals

52%

Masafi 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Dubai City (draw refunded)

35%

Masafi (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubai City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Masafi away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubai City attack 1.00 + Masafi defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Masafi attack 1.28 + Dubai City defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dubai City scores more

27%

level

24%

Masafi scores more

49%

Masafi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Masafi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

R. Abdulla

18'

N. Khamis

55'

E. Noumonvi

63'

I. James

79'

L. Monyuytaah

86'

I. James

87'

L. Monyuytaah

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff