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Dubai City vs Masafi — Division 1 2025

Dubai City
Dubai City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Masafi
Masafi
L. Patanelli 23'
Vinicius Silva 54', 19'
3/17/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 26Al Nasr Club / MS2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dubai City28%
×Draw24%
Masafi49%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dubai City
1.27
Masafi
1.75

Masafi creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

creates per match

Dubai City
1.00
Masafi
1.30

allows per match

Dubai City
2.19
Masafi
1.53

finishing

Dubai City+0.00on par
Masafi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dubai City ↓

Masafi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Dubai City or draw
51%
Dubai City or Masafi
76%
Draw or Masafi
72%

Winning margin

Dubai City wins by 2+
12%
Masafi wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Dubai City 1+ goals
72%
Dubai City 2+ goals
36%
Dubai City 3+ goals
14%
Masafi 1+ goals
83%
Masafi 2+ goals
52%
Masafi 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Dubai City (draw refunded)
36%
Masafi (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dubai City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Masafi away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dubai City attack 1.00 + Masafi defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Masafi attack 1.30 + Dubai City defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dubai City scores more
28%
level
24%
Masafi scores more
49%

Masafi at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Masafi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
Vinicius Silva
23'
L. Patanelli
52'
Ahmed Abdulla Rashed
54'
Vinicius Silva
55'
E. Noumonvi
90+2'
I. James

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dubai City vs Masafi

Masafi beat Dubai City 2-1 in Division 1 on March 17, 2023.

Goals: Vinicius Silva (19', 54'), L. Patanelli (23').

The match was played at Al Nasr Club / MS2 in Dubai.