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Masafi vs Al Jazira Al Hamra — Division 1 2025

Masafi
Masafi
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Al Jazira Al Hamra
Al Jazira Al Hamra
E. Sonupe 90+3', 59'
I. James 66'
M. Khameis 12'
Gildo 28'
3/3/2024Division 1Division 1 · Round 23Masafi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Masafi43%
×Draw25%
Al Jazira Al Hamra32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masafi
1.50
Al Jazira Al Hamra
1.26

Masafi creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Masafi
1.30
Al Jazira Al Hamra
1.13

allows per match

Masafi
1.40
Al Jazira Al Hamra
1.69

finishing

Masafi+0.00on par
Al Jazira Al Hamra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masafi ↓

Al Jazira Al Hamra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Masafi or draw
68%
Masafi or Al Jazira Al Hamra
75%
Draw or Al Jazira Al Hamra
57%

Winning margin

Masafi wins by 2+
21%
Al Jazira Al Hamra wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Masafi 1+ goals
78%
Masafi 2+ goals
44%
Masafi 3+ goals
19%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 1+ goals
72%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 2+ goals
36%
Al Jazira Al Hamra 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Masafi (draw refunded)
57%
Al Jazira Al Hamra (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masafi at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

Al Jazira Al Hamra away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masafi attack 1.30 + Al Jazira Al Hamra defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Al Jazira Al Hamra attack 1.13 + Masafi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Masafi scores more
43%
level
25%
Al Jazira Al Hamra scores more
32%

Masafi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Masafi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
M. Khameis
28'
Gildo
59'
E. Sonupe
66'
I. James
90+3'
E. Sonupe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masafi vs Al Jazira Al Hamra

Masafi beat Al Jazira Al Hamra 4-1 in Division 1 on March 3, 2024.

Goals: M. Khameis (12'), Gildo (28'), E. Sonupe (59', 90+3'), I. James (66').

The match was played at Masafi Stadium in Masafi.