Al Jazira Al Hamra 2–0 Masafi: Result & Stats

Al Jazira Al Hamra

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Masafi

Danilo 68'

B. Fenoglio 18'

10/22/2023

Division 1 · Round 6Al Jazirah Al Hamra Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Al Jazira Al Hamra41%

×Draw23%

Masafi35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Jazira Al HamraExpected goals in this matchMasafi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.53

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.67

Masafi

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

1.65

creates per match

1.24

1.82

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.65

Masafi

1.24

allows per match

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.82

Masafi

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Jazira Al Hamra+0.00on par

Masafi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Jazira Al Hamra ↓

Masafi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Al Jazira Al Hamra or draw

65%

Al Jazira Al Hamra or Masafi

77%

Draw or Masafi

59%

Winning margin

Al Jazira Al Hamra wins by 2+

21%

Masafi wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Al Jazira Al Hamra 1+ goals

81%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 2+ goals

50%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 3+ goals

23%

Masafi 1+ goals

78%

Masafi 2+ goals

45%

Masafi 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Al Jazira Al Hamra (draw refunded)

54%

Masafi (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Jazira Al Hamra at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Masafi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Jazira Al Hamra attack 1.65 + Masafi defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.67

Masafi attack 1.24 + Al Jazira Al Hamra defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al Jazira Al Hamra scores more

41%

level

23%

Masafi scores more

35%

Al Jazira Al Hamra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Al Jazira Al Hamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

B. Fenoglio

68'

Danilo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff