Masafi 2–0 Al Jazira Al Hamra: Result & Stats

Masafi

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Al Jazira Al Hamra

C. Emejero 45+3'

R. Abdulla 36'

1/15/2023

Division 1 · Round 17Masafi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Masafi44%

×Draw25%

Al Jazira Al Hamra30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MasafiExpected goals in this matchAl Jazira Al Hamra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.21

Masafi

1.52

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.21

Masafi creates 26% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

1.32

creates per match

1.06

1.35

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Masafi

1.32

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.06

allows per match

Masafi

1.35

Al Jazira Al Hamra

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Masafi+0.00on par

Al Jazira Al Hamra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masafi ↓

Al Jazira Al Hamra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Masafi or draw

70%

Masafi or Al Jazira Al Hamra

75%

Draw or Al Jazira Al Hamra

56%

Winning margin

Masafi wins by 2+

22%

Al Jazira Al Hamra wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Masafi 1+ goals

78%

Masafi 2+ goals

45%

Masafi 3+ goals

20%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 1+ goals

70%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 2+ goals

34%

Al Jazira Al Hamra 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Masafi (draw refunded)

59%

Al Jazira Al Hamra (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masafi at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

Al Jazira Al Hamra away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masafi attack 1.32 + Al Jazira Al Hamra defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.52

Al Jazira Al Hamra attack 1.06 + Masafi defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Masafi scores more

44%

level

25%

Al Jazira Al Hamra scores more

30%

Masafi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Masafi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

R. Abdulla

45+3'

C. Emejero

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff