Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Masafi vs Al Fujairah SC — Division 1 2025

Masafi
Masafi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al Fujairah SC
Al Fujairah SC
J. Bertino 53'
4/30/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 31Masafi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Masafi42%
×Draw25%
Al Fujairah SC33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Masafi
1.50
Al Fujairah SC
1.31

Masafi creates 15% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 17 away

creates per match

Masafi
1.34
Al Fujairah SC
1.24

allows per match

Masafi
1.38
Al Fujairah SC
1.65

finishing

Masafi+0.00on par
Al Fujairah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Masafi ↓

Al Fujairah SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Masafi or draw
67%
Masafi or Al Fujairah SC
75%
Draw or Al Fujairah SC
58%

Winning margin

Masafi wins by 2+
20%
Al Fujairah SC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Masafi 1+ goals
78%
Masafi 2+ goals
44%
Masafi 3+ goals
19%
Al Fujairah SC 1+ goals
73%
Al Fujairah SC 2+ goals
38%
Al Fujairah SC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Masafi (draw refunded)
56%
Al Fujairah SC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Masafi at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.38 · 29 matches

Al Fujairah SC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Masafi attack 1.34 + Al Fujairah SC defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

Al Fujairah SC attack 1.24 + Masafi defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Masafi scores more
42%
level
25%
Al Fujairah SC scores more
33%

Masafi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Masafi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
J. Bertino

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Masafi vs Al Fujairah SC

Al Fujairah SC beat Masafi 1-0 in Division 1 on April 30, 2023.

Goals: J. Bertino (53').

The match was played at Masafi Stadium in Masafi.