Al Fujairah SC 2–2 Masafi: Result & Stats

Al Fujairah SC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Masafi

O. Hamzaoui 76', 35'

H. Hamad 90+7'

B. Al Noubi 74'

12/25/2022

Division 1 · Round 14Fujairah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Al Fujairah SC44%

×Draw23%

Masafi33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al Fujairah SCExpected goals in this matchMasafi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.46

Al Fujairah SC

1.71

Masafi

1.46

Al Fujairah SC creates 17% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 30 away

1.89

creates per match

1.30

1.61

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Al Fujairah SC

1.89

Masafi

1.30

allows per match

Al Fujairah SC

1.61

Masafi

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Fujairah SC+0.00on par

Masafi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Fujairah SC ↓

Masafi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Al Fujairah SC or draw

67%

Al Fujairah SC or Masafi

77%

Draw or Masafi

56%

Winning margin

Al Fujairah SC wins by 2+

23%

Masafi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Al Fujairah SC 1+ goals

82%

Al Fujairah SC 2+ goals

51%

Al Fujairah SC 3+ goals

24%

Masafi 1+ goals

77%

Masafi 2+ goals

43%

Masafi 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Al Fujairah SC (draw refunded)

57%

Masafi (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Fujairah SC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Masafi away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Fujairah SC attack 1.89 + Masafi defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.71

Masafi attack 1.30 + Al Fujairah SC defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Al Fujairah SC scores more

44%

level

23%

Masafi scores more

33%

Al Fujairah SC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Fujairah SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

O. Hamzaoui

74'

B. Al Noubi

76'

O. Hamzaoui

90+7'

H. Hamad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff